Price spike (the Beast from the East)
Wed 28 Feb · Thu 1 Mar · Fri 2 Mar · Sat 3 Mar · Sun 4 Mar
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 28 Feb: London peaked at 35.0p at 18:00 (Agile's 35p cap), average 16.0p, lowest 9.7p at 22:30; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
- Thu 1 Mar: London peaked at 35.0p at 17:30 (Agile's 35p cap), average 19.1p, lowest 10.3p at 22:30; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
- Fri 2 Mar: London peaked at 35.0p at 09:30 (Agile's 35p cap), average 26.1p, lowest 10.8p at 03:30; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
- Sat 3 Mar: London peaked at 35.0p at 17:30 (Agile's 35p cap), average 17.3p, lowest 9.2p at 07:00; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
- Sun 4 Mar: London peaked at 35.0p at 18:00 (Agile's 35p cap), average 15.5p, lowest 9.2p at 07:00; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
Likely causes
- Electric Insights: "March 1st was the coldest spring day on record, averaging –3.8°C" and "the six days from February 26th to March 3rd were the coldest Britain has been since Christmas 2010". It says the cold "pushed electricity demand up 10%, and prices up by 50%". Source: Electric Insights, The Beast from the East (Q1 2018). (confirmed by source)
- On 1 Mar 2018 National Grid issued its first gas deficit warning in eight years, after an unplanned outage at the South Hook LNG terminal and a Norwegian supply outage; the spot gas price reached 11.2p/kWh against an annual average of 1.5p/kWh, and the warning was withdrawn on 2 Mar. Sources: Electric Insights, Running low on gas (Q1 2018), ICIS, 1 Mar 2018. (confirmed by source)
- Wed 28 Feb, 18:00 (London's peak): wind 11.3GW (22% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 16.5GW (32%), imports 1.5GW, total supply 51.6GW. Over the day wind averaged 10.7GW; the 2018 average was 5.8GW (17%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Thu 1 Mar, 17:30 (London's peak): wind 13.4GW (25% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 15.3GW (29%), imports 2.9GW, total supply 52.7GW. Over the day wind averaged 13GW; the 2018 average was 5.8GW (17%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Fri 2 Mar, 09:30 (London's peak): wind 12.8GW (26% of supply), solar 0.8GW, gas 12.6GW (25%), imports 3.1GW, total supply 49.6GW. Over the day wind averaged 12.7GW; the 2018 average was 5.8GW (17%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Sat 3 Mar, 17:30 (London's peak): wind 8.5GW (18% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 15GW (32%), imports 3GW, total supply 47GW. Over the day wind averaged 9GW; the 2018 average was 5.8GW (17%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Sun 4 Mar, 18:00 (London's peak): wind 5.6GW (12% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 17.1GW (37%), imports 3GW, total supply 46.8GW. Over the day wind averaged 6.2GW; the 2018 average was 5.8GW (17%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- The peak came in the early evening on Wed 28 Feb, Thu 1 Mar, Sat 3 Mar and Sun 4 Mar, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Sat 3 Mar and Sun 4 Mar were at the weekend, when demand is usually lower, so high prices then are less expected. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Wed 28 Feb averaged £128.18/MWh with a high of £194.02 at 09:30; Thu 1 Mar averaged £199.26/MWh with a high of £320.75 at 18:30; Fri 2 Mar averaged £151.18/MWh with a high of £235.67 at 11:00; Sat 3 Mar averaged £74.06/MWh with a high of £109.82 at 11:00; Sun 4 Mar averaged £68.20/MWh with a high of £108.45 at 18:00. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 28 Feb. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Agile was capped at 35p per kWh for new customers until 22 Jul 2022 (the version Agile launched with, AGILE-18-02-21; see
src/lib/products.mjs), so a "high" day before then is one where the evening peak reached that cap. (confirmed by data: the capped half-hours sit at exactly 35.0p)
Confidence
High. Record cold, a gas supply warning on the worst day, and evening peaks at the cap every day of it.
Gaps
- Elexon's system warnings feed has no entries before mid-2023, so warnings for these days couldn't be checked there.