Energy was last better‑than‑free: yesterday Next

Research notes

Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.

What happened

• Wed 2 Jan: London peaked at 35.0p at 17:30 (Agile's 35p cap), average 14.7p, lowest 9.4p at 03:30; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
• Thu 3 Jan: London peaked at 35.0p at 16:30 (Agile's 35p cap), average 16.5p, lowest 11.3p at 22:30; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
• Fri 4 Jan: London peaked at 34.4p at 16:30, average 16.0p, lowest 10.9p at 04:30; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
• Sun 6 Jan: London peaked at 35.0p at 16:30 (Agile's 35p cap), average 15.1p, lowest 10.7p at 07:00; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.

Likely causes

• Wed 2 Jan, 17:30 (London's peak): wind 1.9GW (4% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 25.8GW (55%), imports 2.4GW, total supply 46.9GW. Over the day wind averaged 2.7GW; the 2019 average was 6.7GW (20%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
• Thu 3 Jan, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 1.9GW (4% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 24.5GW (52%), imports 2.7GW, total supply 46.7GW. Over the day wind averaged 1.9GW; the 2019 average was 6.7GW (20%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
• Fri 4 Jan, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 3.6GW (8% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 25.1GW (54%), imports 2.2GW, total supply 46.3GW. Over the day wind averaged 3.1GW; the 2019 average was 6.7GW (20%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
• Sun 6 Jan, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 1.4GW (3% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 24GW (55%), imports 3GW, total supply 44GW. Over the day wind averaged 2.3GW; the 2019 average was 6.7GW (20%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
• Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Wed 2 Jan, Thu 3 Jan and Sun 6 Jan (1.9GW, 1.9GW and 1.4GW, against 6.7GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
• The peak came in the early evening on Wed 2 Jan, Thu 3 Jan, Fri 4 Jan and Sun 6 Jan, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
• Sun 6 Jan was at the weekend, when demand is usually lower, so high prices then are less expected. (inference)
• Elexon market index: Wed 2 Jan averaged £65.50/MWh with a high of £113.78 at 18:00; Thu 3 Jan averaged £69.75/MWh with a high of £108.05 at 16:30; Fri 4 Jan averaged £59.09/MWh with a high of £71.85 at 16:30; Sun 6 Jan averaged £67.46/MWh with a high of £98.01 at 17:30. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 2 Jan. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)

Wider context that week

• Nothing notable found for that week.

Confidence

Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.

Gaps

• No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.
• Elexon's system warnings feed has no entries before mid-2023, so warnings for these days couldn't be checked there.