Price spike (low wind)
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Sat 19 Jan: London peaked at 33.5p at 17:30, average 15.6p, lowest 10.6p at 04:30; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
Likely causes
- Sat 19 Jan, 17:30 (London's peak): wind 2.9GW (6% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 23.8GW (52%), imports 3.1GW, total supply 45.3GW. Over the day wind averaged 4.7GW; the 2019 average was 6.7GW (20%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Sat 19 Jan (2.9GW, against 6.7GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
- The peak came in the early evening on Sat 19 Jan, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Sat 19 Jan was at the weekend, when demand is usually lower, so high prices then are less expected. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Sat 19 Jan averaged £65.85/MWh with a high of £93.28 at 17:00. Source: Elexon market index, Sat 19 Jan. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.
- Elexon's system warnings feed has no entries before mid-2023, so warnings for these days couldn't be checked there.