Price spike (low wind)
Wed 23 Jan · Thu 24 Jan
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 23 Jan: London peaked at 31.1p at 16:30, average 16.0p, lowest 10.5p at 00:00; highest anywhere 34.8p in Northern Scotland.
- Thu 24 Jan: London peaked at 35.0p at 16:00 (Agile's 35p cap), average 20.8p, lowest 10.7p at 02:00; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
Likely causes
- Wed 23 Jan, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 2GW (4% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 26.3GW (57%), imports 0.6GW, total supply 46.3GW. Over the day wind averaged 2.4GW; the 2019 average was 6.7GW (20%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Thu 24 Jan, 16:00 (London's peak): wind 0.7GW (1% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 26.4GW (58%), imports 2.2GW, total supply 45.2GW. Over the day wind averaged 1.2GW; the 2019 average was 6.7GW (20%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Wed 23 Jan and Thu 24 Jan (2GW and 0.7GW, against 6.7GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
- The peak came in the early evening on Wed 23 Jan and Thu 24 Jan, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Wed 23 Jan averaged £85.89/MWh with a high of £152.00 at 15:30; Thu 24 Jan averaged £86.19/MWh with a high of £121.22 at 15:30. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 23 Jan. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.
- Elexon's system warnings feed has no entries before mid-2023, so warnings for these days couldn't be checked there.