Price spike (at the cap)
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 30 Jan: London peaked at 35.0p at 16:30 (Agile's 35p cap), average 15.5p, lowest 9.7p at 03:00; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
Likely causes
- Wed 30 Jan, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 2.5GW (5% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 24.1GW (50%), imports 2.7GW, total supply 47.8GW. Over the day wind averaged 3.1GW; the 2019 average was 6.7GW (20%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Wed 30 Jan (2.5GW, against 6.7GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
- The peak came in the early evening on Wed 30 Jan, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Wed 30 Jan averaged £59.54/MWh with a high of £82.23 at 17:00. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 30 Jan. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.
- Elexon's system warnings feed has no entries before mid-2023, so warnings for these days couldn't be checked there.