Price spike (at the cap)
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Thu 5 Mar: London peaked at 35.0p at 18:00 (Agile's 35p cap), average 10.8p, lowest 5.9p at 23:30; highest anywhere 35.0p in Eastern England.
Likely causes
- Thu 5 Mar, 18:00 (London's peak): wind 5.8GW (12% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 23.2GW (49%), imports 4.1GW, total supply 47GW. Over the day wind averaged 4.7GW; the 2020 average was 7.8GW (25%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- The peak came in the early evening on Thu 5 Mar, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Thu 5 Mar averaged £33.38/MWh with a high of £47.75 at 17:00. Source: Elexon market index, Thu 5 Mar. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.
- Elexon's system warnings feed has no entries before mid-2023, so warnings for these days couldn't be checked there.