Price spike (at the cap)
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 14 Sep: London peaked at 78.0p at 06:30 (Agile's 78p cap), average 68.2p, lowest 49.9p at 03:30; highest anywhere 78.0p in Eastern England.
Likely causes
- Wed 14 Sep, 06:30 (London's peak): wind 3.5GW (11% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 17.8GW (57%), imports 0.7GW, total supply 31.3GW. Over the day wind averaged 5.3GW; the 2022 average was 8.8GW (27%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Wed 14 Sep (3.5GW, against 8.8GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
- Elexon market index: Wed 14 Sep averaged £359.53/MWh with a high of £519.97 at 08:30. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 14 Sep. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Wholesale prices had peaked in August 2022. Source: Electric Insights, Power prices ease going into winter (Q3 2022). (confirmed by source)
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.
- Elexon's system warnings feed has no entries before mid-2023, so warnings for these days couldn't be checked there.