Price spike
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Fri 27 Jan: London peaked at 35.8p at 07:30, average 32.2p, lowest 25.2p at 23:30; highest anywhere 36.0p in Merseyside and Northern Wales.
Likely causes
- Fri 27 Jan, 07:30 (London's peak): wind 5.3GW (13% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 22.4GW (57%), imports 2.8GW, total supply 39.4GW. Over the day wind averaged 5.5GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind wasn't unusually low at the peaks, so the grid figures don't explain these prices on their own. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Fri 27 Jan averaged £153.11/MWh with a high of £188.93 at 07:30. Source: Elexon market index, Fri 27 Jan. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- The Energy Price Guarantee began on 1 Oct 2022, setting household electricity unit rates at 34.0p/kWh. Source: Solar Power Portal, 2022. Octopus applied it to Agile by charging 34p for any half-hour priced 34p to 52p before VAT and taking 17p off anything above, which is why so many half-hours from then to 30 Jun 2023 sit at exactly 35.8p (34p with VAT) and the highest at 82.1p. (confirmed by data in the site's store; see
src/lib/events.mjs)
Confidence
Low. Neither the grid figures nor any report found clearly explain this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.
- Elexon's system warnings feed has no entries before mid-2023, so warnings for these days couldn't be checked there.