Negative prices (record low net demand)
Sat 15 Jul · Sun 16 Jul
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Sat 15 Jul: London was below zero for 1.5 hours (longest spell 1 hour from 10:00), min −2.1p at 10:30; average 6.9p, peak 25.6p at 18:30; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest −2.5p in Northern Scotland.
- Sun 16 Jul: London was below zero for 10.5 hours (longest spell 6 hours from 10:00), min −8.8p at 13:30; average 4.4p, peak 24.6p at 18:00; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest −10.6p in Northern Scotland.
Likely causes
- Electric Insights: net demand (demand left after wind and solar) fell "below 8 GW for the first time on July 15th". Source: Electric Insights, Power system records (Q3 2023). (confirmed by source)
- Sat 15 Jul, 10:30 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 16.3GW (51% of supply), solar 6.1GW, gas 2.6GW (8%), imports 1.1GW, total supply 32GW. Over the day wind averaged 15GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Sun 16 Jul, 13:30 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 15.2GW (46% of supply), solar 7.2GW, gas 3.7GW (11%), imports 1.5GW, total supply 33.1GW. Over the day wind averaged 13.6GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was well above its yearly average at the lowest half-hour on Sat 15 Jul (16.3GW, against 9GW for the year). (inference from NESO data)
- The low came around midday on Sat 15 Jul and Sun 16 Jul, with solar at 6.1GW and 7.2GW. (inference from NESO data)
- Sat 15 Jul and Sun 16 Jul were at the weekend, when demand is lower. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Sat 15 Jul averaged £26.79/MWh with a low of −£12.12 at 03:00; Sun 16 Jul averaged £24.67/MWh with a low of −£32.18 at 13:00. Source: Elexon market index, Sat 15 Jul. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
High.
Gaps
- None beyond what is said above.