Price spike (low wind)
Wed 23 Aug · Thu 24 Aug
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 23 Aug: London peaked at 63.4p at 18:00, average 28.4p, lowest 18.5p at 03:30; highest anywhere 73.6p in Northern Scotland.
- Thu 24 Aug: London peaked at 59.9p at 18:00, average 25.9p, lowest 15.1p at 23:30; highest anywhere 69.3p in Northern Scotland.
Likely causes
- Wed 23 Aug, 18:00 (London's peak): wind 2.4GW (8% of supply), solar 1.7GW, gas 16.7GW (52%), imports 2.7GW, total supply 32.3GW. Over the day wind averaged 2.8GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Thu 24 Aug, 18:00 (London's peak): wind 2.8GW (9% of supply), solar 1.8GW, gas 16.5GW (52%), imports 1.7GW, total supply 31.8GW. Over the day wind averaged 3.5GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Wed 23 Aug and Thu 24 Aug (2.4GW and 2.8GW, against 9GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
- The peak came in the early evening on Wed 23 Aug and Thu 24 Aug, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Wed 23 Aug averaged £115.43/MWh with a high of £195.28 at 18:00; Thu 24 Aug averaged £97.06/MWh with a high of £142.06 at 18:30. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 23 Aug. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.