Price spike (low wind)
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Mon 16 Oct: London peaked at 63.3p at 18:30, average 29.0p, lowest 20.9p at 01:00; highest anywhere 73.4p in Northern Scotland.
Likely causes
- Mon 16 Oct, 18:30 (London's peak): wind 3.7GW (10% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 18.8GW (49%), imports 4.7GW, total supply 38.5GW. Over the day wind averaged 3.2GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Mon 16 Oct (3.7GW, against 9GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
- The peak came in the early evening on Mon 16 Oct, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Mon 16 Oct averaged £121.28/MWh with a high of £185.29 at 18:00. Source: Elexon market index, Mon 16 Oct. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Storm Babet (Wed 18 Oct to Sat 21 Oct) was within a few days of it. Source: Met Office, UK storm season 2023/24. (confirmed by source; its effect on these prices is inference)
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.