Negative prices (Storm Babet)
Wed 18 Oct · Thu 19 Oct
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 18 Oct: London was below zero for 1 hour (longest spell half an hour from 02:30), min −0.9p at 23:30; average 15.0p, peak 38.9p at 17:30; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest −1.1p in Northern Scotland.
- Thu 19 Oct: London was below zero for half an hour from 01:00, min −0.4p at 01:00; average 18.4p, peak 42.8p at 17:30; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest −0.5p in Northern Scotland.
Likely causes
- Storm Babet affected the UK on 18 to 21 Oct 2023, according to the Met Office's list of named storms for 2023/24. Source: Met Office, UK storm season 2023/24. (confirmed by source; its link to the prices is inference)
- Wed 18 Oct, 23:30 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 18.8GW (66% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 3.6GW (13%), imports 0.1GW, total supply 28.5GW. Over the day wind averaged 19.2GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Thu 19 Oct, 01:00 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 18.6GW (66% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 3.7GW (13%), imports 0.1GW, total supply 28.2GW. Over the day wind averaged 15GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was well above its yearly average at the lowest half-hour on Wed 18 Oct and Thu 19 Oct (18.8GW and 18.6GW, against 9GW for the year). (inference from NESO data)
- The low came overnight on Wed 18 Oct and Thu 19 Oct, when demand is at its lowest. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Wed 18 Oct averaged £76.49/MWh with a low of £8.38 at 04:00; Thu 19 Oct averaged £87.59/MWh with a low of £2.45 at 01:00. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 18 Oct. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
High.
Gaps
- None beyond what is said above.