Negative prices (the night the clocks went back)
Sat 28 Oct · Sun 29 Oct
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Sat 28 Oct: London was below zero for half an hour from 22:30, min −1.2p at 22:30; average 17.8p, peak 40.5p at 17:30; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest −1.4p in Northern Scotland.
- Sun 29 Oct: London was below zero for half an hour from 07:00, min −0.0p at 07:00; average 13.8p, peak 46.2p at 17:00; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest −0.0p in Eastern England.
Likely causes
- The clocks went back at 2am on Sun 29 Oct 2023 (the last Sunday in October). Source: GOV.UK, when do the clocks change. (confirmed by source; any effect on prices is not established)
- Sat 28 Oct, 22:30 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 14.9GW (51% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 3.1GW (11%), imports 4.9GW, total supply 29.1GW. Over the day wind averaged 10.6GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Sun 29 Oct, 07:00 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 13.1GW (49% of supply), solar 0.1GW, gas 3.1GW (12%), imports 4.3GW, total supply 26.8GW. Over the day wind averaged 13.9GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- The low came overnight on Sat 28 Oct, when demand is at its lowest. (inference)
- Sat 28 Oct and Sun 29 Oct were at the weekend, when demand is lower. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Sat 28 Oct averaged £102.34/MWh with a low of £29.33 at 00:30; Sun 29 Oct averaged £59.56/MWh with a low of −£10.49 at 23:30. Source: Elexon market index, Sat 28 Oct. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Storm Ciarán followed on 1 and 2 Nov 2023. Source: Met Office, UK storm season 2023/24.
Confidence
Low. Neither the grid figures nor any report found clearly explain this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.