Price spike (a cold snap and Demand Flexibility Service events)
Wed 29 Nov · Thu 30 Nov · Fri 1 Dec
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 29 Nov: London peaked at 65.1p at 16:30, average 28.7p, lowest 15.4p at 00:00; highest anywhere 75.5p in Northern Scotland.
- Thu 30 Nov: London peaked at 60.8p at 16:30, average 29.6p, lowest 16.8p at 00:00; highest anywhere 70.5p in Northern Scotland.
- Fri 1 Dec: London peaked at 61.7p at 16:30, average 31.1p, lowest 17.3p at 04:30; highest anywhere 71.6p in Northern Scotland.
Likely causes
- National Grid ESO instructed its Demand Flexibility Service for Wed 29 Nov 2023 (5pm to 6.30pm GMT) and Fri 1 Dec 2023 (4.30pm to 6pm), paying households and businesses to cut demand in the evening peak. Source: Elexon system warnings feed. (confirmed by source)
- System warning published 30 Nov, 17:04: "NATIONAL GRID NOTIFICATION - DEMAND FLEXIBILTY SERVICE. DFS have been instructed for Friday 01/12/2023 between 16:30 and 18:00. Times in GMT The maximum demand reduction volume during this period is 487 MW. This will be …" Source: Elexon system warnings. (confirmed by source)
- System warning published 28 Nov, 16:35: "NATIONAL GRID NOTIFICATION - DEMAND FLEXIBILTY SERVICE. DFS have been instructed for Wednesday 29/11/2023 between 17:00 and 18:30. Times in GMT The maximum demand reduction volume during this period is 459 MW. This will …" Source: Elexon system warnings. (confirmed by source)
- Wed 29 Nov, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 3.4GW (8% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 22.4GW (52%), imports 5.4GW, total supply 43.5GW. Over the day wind averaged 4.7GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Thu 30 Nov, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 6.5GW (14% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 25.2GW (54%), imports 2.3GW, total supply 46.5GW. Over the day wind averaged 5.6GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Fri 1 Dec, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 1.2GW (3% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 25.2GW (56%), imports 5.3GW, total supply 44.7GW. Over the day wind averaged 2.4GW; the 2023 average was 9GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Wed 29 Nov and Fri 1 Dec (3.4GW and 1.2GW, against 9GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
- The peak came in the early evening on Wed 29 Nov, Thu 30 Nov and Fri 1 Dec, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Wed 29 Nov averaged £119.53/MWh with a high of £195.73 at 16:30; Thu 30 Nov averaged £122.15/MWh with a high of £169.50 at 10:00; Fri 1 Dec averaged £124.93/MWh with a high of £166.16 at 16:30. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 29 Nov. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
High.
Gaps
- None beyond what is said above.