Price spike
Wed 10 Jan · Thu 11 Jan
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 10 Jan: London peaked at 38.5p at 16:30, average 20.9p, lowest 14.1p at 05:00; highest anywhere 43.7p in Northern Scotland.
- Thu 11 Jan: London peaked at 37.8p at 16:30, average 20.5p, lowest 14.4p at 00:00; highest anywhere 42.8p in Northern Scotland.
Likely causes
- Wed 10 Jan, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 9GW (19% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 26.8GW (56%), imports 0.4GW, total supply 47.6GW. Over the day wind averaged 9.1GW; the 2024 average was 9.4GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Thu 11 Jan, 16:30 (London's peak): wind 8.9GW (20% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 24.7GW (55%), imports 0.8GW, total supply 44.9GW. Over the day wind averaged 7.7GW; the 2024 average was 9.4GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- The peak came in the early evening on Wed 10 Jan and Thu 11 Jan, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Wind wasn't unusually low at the peaks, so the grid figures don't explain these prices on their own. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Wed 10 Jan averaged £91.30/MWh with a high of £125.77 at 07:30; Thu 11 Jan averaged £84.97/MWh with a high of £109.66 at 08:30. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 10 Jan. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
Low. Neither the grid figures nor any report found clearly explain this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.