Negative prices
Sat 3 Feb · Sun 4 Feb · Mon 5 Feb
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Sat 3 Feb: London reached 0p at 02:30 (1 hour at 0p in all); average 11.3p, peak 30.1p at 17:30; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest 0.0p in Eastern England.
- Sun 4 Feb: London was below zero for 1 hour (longest spell half an hour from 07:00), min −1.6p at 08:00; average 7.6p, peak 29.1p at 18:00; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest −1.9p in Northern Scotland.
- Mon 5 Feb: London was below zero for 2.5 hours (longest spell 1 hour from 03:00), min −2.6p at 03:30; average 11.7p, peak 29.7p at 17:30; all 14 regions at 0p or below; lowest −3.1p in Northern Scotland.
Likely causes
- System warning published 2 Feb, 11:38: "NATIONAL GRID NOTIFICATION - DEMAND FLEXIBILITY SERVICE. DFS Tests have been instructed for Friday 02/02/2024 between 17:00 and 18:00. Times in GMT The maximum demand reduction volume during this period is 161 MW. This w…" Source: Elexon system warnings. (confirmed by source)
- Sat 3 Feb, 02:30 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 17.4GW (61% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 3.5GW (12%), imports 1.5GW, total supply 28.6GW. Over the day wind averaged 16.8GW; the 2024 average was 9.4GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Sun 4 Feb, 08:00 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 17.7GW (60% of supply), solar 0.1GW, gas 4.1GW (14%), imports 1.2GW, total supply 29.8GW. Over the day wind averaged 18.6GW; the 2024 average was 9.4GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Mon 5 Feb, 03:30 (London's lowest half-hour): wind 17.8GW (65% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 3GW (11%), imports 0.7GW, total supply 27.5GW. Over the day wind averaged 18.8GW; the 2024 average was 9.4GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was well above its yearly average at the lowest half-hour on Sat 3 Feb, Sun 4 Feb and Mon 5 Feb (17.4GW, 17.7GW and 17.8GW, against 9.4GW for the year). (inference from NESO data)
- The low came overnight on Sat 3 Feb and Mon 5 Feb, when demand is at its lowest. (inference)
- Sat 3 Feb and Sun 4 Feb were at the weekend, when demand is lower. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Sat 3 Feb averaged £40.15/MWh with a low of £1.46 at 03:30; Sun 4 Feb averaged £30.15/MWh with a low of −£7.32 at 05:00; Mon 5 Feb averaged £52.27/MWh with a low of −£5.27 at 02:30. Source: Elexon market index, Sat 3 Feb. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.