Price spike (low wind)
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Wed 20 Mar: London peaked at 40.3p at 18:30, average 18.3p, lowest 12.6p at 03:30; highest anywhere 45.9p in Northern Scotland.
Likely causes
- System warning published 21 Mar, 14:15: "NATIONAL GRID NOTIFICATION - DEMAND FLEXIBILITY SERVICE. DFS Tests have been instructed for Thursday 21/03/2024 between 17:30 and 19:00. Times in GMT The maximum demand reduction volume during this period is 84 MW. This …" Source: Elexon system warnings. (confirmed by source)
- Wed 20 Mar, 18:30 (London's peak): wind 3.4GW (9% of supply), solar 0GW, gas 19.9GW (52%), imports 4.3GW, total supply 38.3GW. Over the day wind averaged 3.1GW; the 2024 average was 9.4GW (29%). Source: NESO historic generation mix. (figures confirmed by source; link to prices is inference)
- Wind was less than half its yearly average at the peak on Wed 20 Mar (3.4GW, against 9.4GW for the year), so gas made up the gap. (inference from NESO data)
- The peak came in the early evening on Wed 20 Mar, when demand is highest and there is no solar. (inference)
- Elexon market index: Wed 20 Mar averaged £81.34/MWh with a high of £120.63 at 18:30. Source: Elexon market index, Wed 20 Mar. (confirmed by source; a short-term index, not the day-ahead auction Agile follows)
Wider context that week
- Nothing notable found for that week.
Confidence
Medium. The grid figures fit the prices, but no report found names a cause for this date.
Gaps
- No news report or official write-up found that ties this date to a cause; the causes above are from the data.