Price spike (the November “dunkelflaute”)
Mon 4 Nov · Tue 5 Nov · Wed 6 Nov
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- Three working days of expensive evenings. London peaked at 60.7p (Mon 16:30), 81.7p (Tue 16:30) and 65.7p (Wed 17:30). Daily averages 24.2p, 27.7p and 26.4p.
- Tue 5 Nov was the worst: 95.5p in Northern Scotland, close to Agile's 100p cap.
Likely causes
- Almost no wind, under a large, slow high-pressure system. The Telegraph reported on 5 Nov that wind was meeting only 3% to 4% of UK demand at the morning and evening peaks while gas met about 60%, and quoted the Met Office: "we have high pressure dominating the weather and this is helping to keep the wind quite gentle." Source: Telegraph via Yahoo News, 5 Nov. (confirmed by source)
- NESO data agrees closely. Wind averaged 2.0GW on Mon, 1.4GW on Tue and 3.3GW on Wed. Tue 5 Nov was the least windy day of the whole quarter, with wind at 1.3GW (3% of supply) at the 16:30 price peak and gas at 23.9GW. Gas averaged 60% of supply that day. Source: NESO historic generation mix. (confirmed by source)
- It was dark and sunless too, so solar gave nothing at the evening peak. The Met Office says some places recorded no sunshine at all in the first week of November, part of two weeks of "anticyclonic gloom". Source: Met Office November and autumn 2024 stats. (confirmed by source)
- UK gas-fired generation hit its highest since Nov 2023, and the lull covered much of Europe (Poland declared a power market emergency that Wednesday). Source: Proactive Investors, 6 Nov. (confirmed by source)
- Montel, writing on 26 Nov, said hourly GB spot prices had hit "almost GBP 330/MWh" three weeks earlier, which points to this spell. Source: Montel News, 26 Nov. (confirmed by source, but Montel does not give the exact date, so pinning it to 5 Nov is inference)
- European contagion: Germany's day-ahead price passed €800/MWh for 17:00 to 18:00 on Wed 6 Nov. The German regulator and cartel office later studied 5 to 7 Nov and 11 to 12 Dec as the two dunkelflaute price spikes of 2024 and found no evidence of capacity being withheld. Source: Bundesnetzagentur, 21 Oct 2025. (confirmed by source) With continental prices that high, imports to GB were dearer and scarcer. (inference)
- Mild weather softened the blow. Drax Electric Insights notes the long November wind drought coincided with mild temperatures that held demand down. Source: Drax Electric Insights Q3 2025. (confirmed by source) That fits prices peaking around 82p in London here against the 100p cap in the colder December spell.
Wider context that week
- Tue 5 Nov was US election day; Donald Trump's win was called on Wed 6 Nov. Wikipedia
- Germany's governing coalition collapsed on the evening of Wed 6 Nov, the same day as its price spike. Wikipedia: 2024 German government crisis
- Tue 5 Nov was Bonfire Night, for what it is worth to a post.
- The Elexon Market Index Price peaked at £175, £184 and £150/MWh on the three days, each within half an hour of Agile's peak. Elexon market index, 5 Nov
Confidence
High. Dated press coverage, a Met Office quote, the regulator's later study and the generation data all say the same thing.
Gaps
No capacity market notice or margin notice was issued on these days (checked the Elexon feed for 3 to 7 Nov). Could not find the GB day-ahead auction's exact hourly figures for each of the three days in a free source.