Price spike (one evening)
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- London fell to 11.8p at 00:00 and rose to 55.9p at 18:30; 64.5p in Northern Scotland. Daily average 20.7p, so this was an evening squeeze rather than a dear day throughout.
Likely causes
- Wind collapsed through the day. Elexon-metered wind was 13.7GW at midnight, 5.1GW at noon, 2.0GW at 18:00 and 1.7GW at 20:00. Gas went the other way, from 3.2GW at midnight to 20.3GW at 18:00. That matches the price shape almost exactly: cheapest at midnight, dearest at the evening peak. (confirmed by source: Elexon FUELHH, 22 Oct)
- This was the lull ahead of Storm Benjamin (named by Météo-France). The Met Office issued yellow wind and rain warnings on 21 Oct for the storm arriving on Thu 23 Oct. Wind was back to 11.9GW on Thu and 14.4GW on Fri. (confirmed by source: Met Office warnings, 21 Oct; Elexon for the wind figures. That the calm was "ahead of the storm" is inference.)
- Late Oct evenings are dark by 18:00, so there is no solar help at the peak, and demand was at typical autumn weekday levels (about 36GW supply at 18:00). (inference from the same data)
Wider context that week
- On the same day, 22 Oct, the US sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil. On 23 Oct the EU adopted its 19th sanctions package, including a ban on Russian LNG imports (from 25 Apr 2026 for short-term contracts, 1 Jan 2027 for long-term ones). Big energy news for a post dated that day, but I found nothing linking it to this one-evening spike. (Covington; Skadden)
Confidence
High that the intraday wind drop caused it; the half-hourly data tracks the price closely. Low on any wider market cause.
Gaps
No news report on GB prices that day. Gas price for the day not checked.