Price spike
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
- London peaked at 58.7p at 16:30, the earliest peak of the five high-price days; 67.9p in Northern Scotland. Daily average 24.4p, the highest of any event day in this period, with an overnight low of 14.8p.
Likely causes
- Cold, bright, and not very windy. The Met Office's week-ahead on 24 Nov described "a noticeable drop in temperatures", highs of 6 or 7°C, Tuesday as "the sunniest day" and Tuesday night "widely frosty", with lows of −6 or −7°C possible in rural Scotland and Wales by Wed morning. (confirmed by source: Met Office week ahead, 24 Nov)
- Demand was high. Total transmission supply reached about 43.3GW at 18:00, against about 36GW at the same hour in mid Oct. (confirmed by source: Elexon FUELHH, 25 Nov)
- Wind faded into the evening: 14.7GW in the early hours, about 6GW from 14:00 to 19:00. Gas ran at 22 to 22.6GW right through the afternoon and evening, peaking at 23.6GW. (confirmed by source: same Elexon query)
- It was Europe-wide. Bloomberg reported on 25 Nov that European short-term power prices spiked "as a sharp drop in wind generation coincided with a cold snap", with Germany tightest: its day-ahead price peaked at €371/MWh around 17:00. With the continent expensive too, imports could not cap the GB price (GB was importing only 2.5 to 3.7GW at the peak). (Bloomberg report confirmed by source, headline and search summary only: Bloomberg, 25 Nov 2025; the point about imports is inference)
- The early sunset explains the 16:30 peak: in late Nov it is dark before the teatime demand rise. (inference)
Wider context that week
- Wed 26 Nov was Budget day. Rachel Reeves announced about £150 off household energy bills, by having the Treasury cover three-quarters of the Renewables Obligation cost for three years and not renewing the ECO insulation scheme when it ends in Apr 2026. The IFS said the saving shrinks once the temporary subsidy ends (Independent via AOL). (Carbon Brief; Octopus Energy blog)
- On Fri 21 Nov Ofgem announced the Jan to Mar 2026 cap: up 0.2% to £1,758. (Ofgem)
- Gas was getting cheaper: European gas hit its lowest since 2024 on 21 Nov on a US-led Ukraine peace plan and mild forecasts, and the Dutch benchmark broke below €30/MWh on 24 Nov. So this spike was about tight power supply, not fuel cost. (Bloomberg, 21 Nov; S&P Global, 24 Nov)
- The previous week (17 to 21 Nov) had been colder still, with −12.6°C at Tomintoul on 21 Nov, the coldest Nov night in 15 years according to the BBC report cited by Wikipedia. Gas burn on Fri 21 Nov (19.6GW average) was actually higher than on 25 Nov; that day just missed the 55p threshold.
- A fortnight earlier, on 11 Nov, wind had set a new NESO record of 22,711MW. A neat contrast for a post. (RenewableUK)
Confidence
High. Met Office forecast, generation data and a same-day Bloomberg report about the wider European spike all point the same way.
Gaps
Bloomberg article is paywalled; I only saw its headline and a search-engine summary, so the €371 figure should be checked before quoting. No GB-specific price report found. One search result quoted GB day-ahead prices for "November 25" from a TEAM Energy weekly report, but the page now redirects and I could not verify it, so it is left out.