Price spike
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened
London averaged 32.9p for the day, with a minimum of 14.7p at 03:30 and a peak of 63.8p at 16:30. The highest price anywhere was 74.1p in Northern Scotland. This was the highest daily average of the half-year.
Likely causes
- Cold snap with very low wind. Montel Analytics, quoted on 7 Jan, forecast that "wind output could fall to as little as 2 GW on 8 January", limiting renewable supply and pushing up wholesale prices. Britain had recorded its highest demand since Mar 2018 (47.3 GW) on Mon 5 Jan, when only 23% of demand was met by renewables. (confirmed by source) Energy Voice, 7 Jan 2026
- The GB day-ahead market's daily average on 8 Jan was €139.74/MWh, "its highest price since February 18, 2025". GB demand that week was up 17% on the week before. (confirmed by source) AleaSoft, 12 Jan 2026
- Montel's quarterly summary says day-ahead prices "reached GBP 121.4/MWh in early January, with hourly prices peaking around GBP 182/MWh during system stress", in a cold spell that pushed peak demand to 47.3 GW. It does not name the day, but £121.4/MWh matches AleaSoft's €139.74 for 8 Jan at the exchange rate of the time. (confirmed by source for the figures; the match to 8 Jan is an inference) Montel GB electricity market summary Q1 2026
- Storm Goretti (named by Météo-France) arrived on the evening of 8 Jan, with heavy snow across Wales and the Midlands and a red wind warning for Cornwall and Scilly. It brought wind to the south-west late in the day, but the evening price peak at 16:30 came before it, in the cold, still air ahead of the storm. (storm details confirmed by source; the timing point is an inference) Met Office storm season review, Wikipedia: Storm Goretti
- Gas was not the driver. TTF was only about €27 to €29/MWh that week, well below later levels. (confirmed by source) AleaSoft, 12 Jan 2026
Wider context that week
- Within-day auction prices had hit £1,040/MWh around 13:00 on Mon 5 Jan, more than ten times the day-ahead price, and Dutch imbalance prices went above €4,000/MWh the same day. Energy Voice
- The Jan to Mar 2026 Ofgem price cap was £1,758 for a typical dual-fuel household, up 0.2% on the previous quarter, with electricity at 27.69p/kWh. Ofgem
- Despite the cold start, January turned very windy. Bloomberg (syndicated) reported wind on course to average more than 14 GW, the highest in nearly four years, with GB day-ahead prices averaging about €109/MWh for the month on Nord Pool. A PA story headlined "Storms Goretti, Ingrid and Chandra see UK break records for wind power in January" gives 10.6 TWh, beating Dec 2023's 10.4 TWh (figures from the search snippet; page not opened). Energy Connects (Bloomberg syndication), AOL/PA
Confidence
High. Two independent market sources put the GB day-ahead price on 8 Jan at its highest for almost a year, and a dated forecast gives the low-wind, high-demand reason.
Gaps
- No outturn wind figure for 8 Jan itself, only the 2 GW forecast made the day before.
- Looked for a 2026 NESO Electricity Margin Notice or Capacity Market Notice for 8 Jan and found none. Osborne Clarke later wrote that the Jun 2026 notice was "the first EMN issued by NESO since January 2025", which implies there was none in Jan 2026. Osborne Clarke