Negative prices
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened. London down to −4.0p at 13:00, below zero for 6 hours from 10:00, average 15.3p. A working day.
Likely causes
- Catalyst's report that morning: wind "expected to peak on 5 August", and the day-ahead peak contract settled £39 below baseload (£49.61 against £88.84), "which only happens when midday renewable output is heavy enough to swamp the daytime demand block" (confirmed by source) Catalyst 5 Aug
- Wind averaged 12.1 GW, the most of any day in Jul or Aug, with solar peaking at 12.0 GW. At 13:00 gas plant was at 1.5 GW (confirmed by data) Elexon FUELHH 5 Aug
- Gas was also at its Aug low that day (129.50p) on reports that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close (confirmed by source) Catalyst monthly brief covering Aug
Wider context that week. A short heatwave on 3 to 5 Aug (33.5°C at Wisley on 4 Aug). EU gas storage 57.7% full, 12 points behind last year.
Confidence. High.
Gaps. No NESO or mainstream press mention found.