Negative prices in the middle of the expensive run
Research notes
Figures are for London unless they say otherwise.
What happened. London down to −2.7p at 11:00, below zero for 5 hours, yet the day averaged 22.0p with a 47.3p peak at 17:30.
Likely causes
- Wind rose from 5 GW at midnight to 16.3 GW by midday (daily max 16.9 GW) and then fell away again through the evening; solar added 6 to 8 GW. At 11:00 gas plant was at 2.9 GW and Britain was exporting (confirmed by data) Elexon FUELHH 12 Sep
- Friday's day-ahead for the weekend collapsed: baseload £117.34 (down £58.66) and peak £69.68 (down £105.26) (confirmed by source) Catalyst 14 Sep
- Saturday demand (inference).
Wider context. Gas was still about 199p, so as soon as the wind eased the evening went straight back to 47p. Same week as the section above.
Confidence. High.
Gaps. None beyond the lack of press coverage.